Gage Roads Brewing Co Ltd (GRB)

Initiation of Coverage

Gage Roads Brewing Co. Ltd. (GRB) is the only craft brewer listed on the ASX with operations based in WA. GRB recently won a tender allowing them exclusive pouring rights to supply beer to the new Optus (Perth) Stadium. This deal will provide a marketing platform which should assist GRB with its five-year strategy of increasing volumes of its higher margin craft-brewed products while stepping down production of its lower margin contract brewed beer. The shift in production profile should see a lift in margins and translate into strong earnings growth over the next few years. We believe that GRB is well placed to take advantage of the growing craft beer market. We place a Speculative Buy recommendation on GRB with a price target of $0.12 per share.

Key Points

  • Optus (Perth) Stadium tender win provides leverage to grow craft brand: We believe that the tender win, which allows exclusive pouring rights, will be key in driving brand recognition and will essentially provide free marketing for their products to millions of people each year. The win will provide leverage for GRB to tap into new retail distribution channels and will assist with securing more tap points at bars and clubs across the country. It will also allow them to potentially win further partnership deals at events further assisting brand enhancement, important to the successful execution of their “Returning to craft strategy”.
  • Returning to Craft Strategy to drive a shift in earnings: In 2016 GRB announced a change in strategy which will effectively see a shift in sales mix away from the lower margin contract brewing operations and will focus on converting the 11m litres of volume into their higher margin, proprietary craft brands. GRB’s gross margins were 52% in FY16 and they are targeting 70% by FY21. If achieved, this could see EBITDA per litre moving from $0.23 to $1.00.
  • Craft beer continues to grow in popularity: Consumers are becoming more health conscious which has seen changing taste preferences and a move away from the high volume mainstream beer market towards more premium beers and craft, preferring quality over quantity. Over the past five years revenue in the sector has grown at an annual average rate of 9.7% and is expected to continue to grow over the next five years at an annual pace of 6%, compared to only 2.1% for the wider beer manufacturing industry, according to IBISWorld.
  • $25m in capex spent with plenty of spare capacity available: Since 2010 GRB has spent a significant amount on state-of-the-art brewing equipment and is currently producing around 11m litres p.a. out of the maximum plant capacity of 17.4m litres p.a. available.
  • Strong balance sheet with no debt and $5.6m in cash: In 2016 GRB raised $10.1m which allowed GRB to strengthen its balance sheet by retiring $4.7m in debt. GRB has $5.6m in cash and a $6m undrawn debt facility.
  • Potential takeover target in time: In 2016 GRB bought back a 23.5% stake held by Woolworths (WOW) which removed a potential blocking stake and allowed them to regain their independent brewer status. M&A activity in the craft beer segment in Australia has been increasing as large brewers looked to acquire smaller companies to ensure they can participate in the growing craft segment. However, GRB will need to increase the proportion of its craft brewed products before a major would likely look to acquire a stake in GRB with WOW still being a major customer.
  • Recommendation: We initiate coverage on GRB with a Speculative Buy recommendation and a valuation of $0.12 per share.

Disclosure Disclaimer

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This Research Report, expresses the personal view of the Author. DJ Carmichael Pty Limited, including authors of this report, its directors and employees advise that at the time of publication they hold or may become entitled to securities of the issued capital of the company and/or earn brokerage and other benefits or advantages, either directly or indirectly from client transactions in stocks mentioned in this report.

The analyst does not hold securities in Gage Roads Brewing Co. Limited.

DJ Carmichael Pty Ltd is a wholly owned subsidiary of DJ Carmichael Group Pty Ltd ACN 114 921 247. In accordance with Section 949A of the Corporations Act 2001 DJ Carmichael Pty Limited advises this document contains general financial advice only. In preparing this document DJ Carmichael Pty Limited did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (‘financial circumstances’) of any particular person. Accordingly, before acting on any advice contained in this document, you should assess whether the advice is appropriate in light of your own financial circumstances or contact your DJ Carmichael Pty Limited adviser. DJ Carmichael Pty Limited, its Directors employees and advisers may earn brokerage or commission from any transactions undertaken on your behalf as a result of acting upon this information. DJ Carmichael Pty Limited believes that the advice herein is accurate. However, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given in relation to any advice or information contained in this publication and no responsibility for any loss or damage whatsoever arising in any way for any representation, act or omission, whether express or implied (including responsibility to any persons by reason of negligence), is accepted by DJ Carmichael Pty Limited or any officer, agent or employee of DJ Carmichael Pty Limited. This message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not the intended recipient or employee or agent responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication and its attachments is strictly prohibited.

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Recommendation Definitions

SPECULATIVE BUY – Potential 10% or more outperformance, high risk
BUY – Potential 10% or more outperformance
HOLD – Potential 10% underperformance to 10% over performance
SELL – Potential 10% or more underperformance
Period: During the forthcoming 12 months, at any time during that period and not necessarily just at the end of those 12 months.

Stocks included in this report have their expected performance measured relative to the ASX All Ordinaries Index. DJ Carmichael Pty Limited’s recommendation is made on the basis of absolute performance. Recommendations are adjusted accordingly as and when the index changes.

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Michael Ron

Research Analyst

Michael has been trading equities since 2003 and since joining DJ Carmichael in 2004 has worked in numerous roles in operations, trading, compliance and research. Michael’s expertise is in trading and equity strategy using a combination of both technical and fundamental analysis.

Michael holds a Graduate Diploma in Applied Finance, Diploma of Financial Markets, Diploma of Financial Planning, Advanced Diploma of Business Administration and is currently studying towards a Master of Applied Finance.